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Thursday, May 21, 2009

German Bundesliga Final Week Tipping

This Saturday will be the final week of the Bundesliga Season 08-09. VfL Wolfsburg is the clear front runner in the title race as they have 2 points advantage and 7 superior goal difference against Bayern München. At the same time, the relegation fight is clearer now, even though it is still unknown which team will success and which team will fail. Before I make any tippings, I will list out all the title winning possibilities from each team. Some of them are not practical but it is all about statistical possibilities only.

VfL Wolfsburg win the title:

  • They win the game; or
  • They draw, and the draw game of Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart, and any result of Hertha Berlin
  • They lost, and the draw game of Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart, and any result of Hertha Berlin

Bayern München win the title:

  • They win the game, with VfL Wolfsburg lost; or
  • They win the game by more than 7 goals margin, with VfL Wolfsburg draw

VfB Stuttgart win the title:

  • They win the game, with VfL Wolfsburg lost; or
  • They win the game by more than 14 goals margin, with VfL Wolfsburg draw

Hertha Berlin win the title:

  • They win the game, with Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart draw, and VfL Wolfsburg lost. Total margin between Hertha Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg must be more than 24 goals

Now here's the tipping:

VfL Wolfsburg (1st) vs Werder Bremen (10th): Wolfsburg had won a very important match against Hannover 96 last week and led them to have a valuable lead to win their first ever title. Since the return of Zvjezdan Misimovic, Eden Dzeko and Grafite had the unlimited supply from the midfield and they kept scoring. The scoring duo had scored 51 goals in total that showed how treatening they were. I believe this match they will keep threatening the Werder Bremen defense as the absence of Per Mertesacker. Naldo and Sebastian Prödl are not a good combination in defense so Wolfsburg are easy to score goals. On the other hand, Werder Bremen needs to prepare the DFB Pokal harder as they lost UEFA Cup Final. Players are fatigue as the UEFA Cup Final had been played for 120 minutes. Mesut Özil is believed not to play but Diego may start the game as he was suspended in the midweek and he needs to keep his form for DFB Pokal. I believe Werder Bremen can score goals but Wolfsburg can win the match and win the title.

Last matchup: Werder Bremen win 2-1

My tip: Wolfsburg win 4-2

Bayern München (2nd) vs VfB Stuttgart (3rd): Bayern München had missed the catch up against Wolfsburg last week and now they only hope for protecting the 2nd place in order to qualify for UEFA Champions League next season. Luca Toni is still in quiet form, he simply cannot protect the possession well and he keeps losing the ball all the time. Franck Ribery is back in top form, so he will be very important in this match. Lukas Podolski is good, but only for 60 minutes. So he must find some goals before his fitness cannot support his performance. The defense is still in trouble in dealing with counter attacks, unfortunately this is the strength of VfB Stuttgart. On the other hand, Stuttgart is in red hot form and lead them to have chance to win the title. Mario Gomez unfortunately is having a trouble of minor injury and he failed to score goals in last 2 matches. However the counter attack is still very threatening as Thomas Hitzlsperger and Sami Khedira are very fit now. Cacau and Cipiran Marica are still threatening to Bayern München defense but Bayern München can still win the game with slight home court advantage and better match experience.

Last matchup: Match draw 2-2

My tip: Bayern München win 2-1

Karlsruher SC (18th) vs Hertha Berlin (3rd): Even Karlsruher failed to avoid relegation directly, they still keep their hope alive as they can still climb up to 16th position to participate in the promotion / relegation playoff against Nürnberg. They boosted their morale after winning against Werder Bremen away from home. Lars Stindl will be very important to the team as he shone through in the field last week. This match they must win the game in order to climb up the table so they will give everything they can. On the other side, Hertha Berlin basically lost the hope for winning their title after they drew against Schalke last week. Andrei Voronin is not fit anymore and Marko Pantelic is too unstable to rely on. Gojko Karcar is the only attacking player who can rely on and I believe he needs to work harder in order to lead the team to win. I believe Hertha Berlin will win this one as they are better in player quality, so Karlsruher will farewell to Bundesliga.

Last matchup: Hertha Berlin win 4-0

My tip: Hertha Berlin win 3-0

Eintract Frankfurt (13th) vs Hamburger SV (6th): Frankfurt now are safe from relegation so I believe they are relaxed and enjoy the remaining of the season. So I believe they can perform their best side as they do not any pressure at all. Patrick Ochs is still suspended but it will not affect them at all. On the other side, Hamburger needs to win the match as many goals as they can in order to get the last seat to qualify for Europe. Piotr Trochowski and Ivica Olic are the most important players in the team. I believe Hamburger can win this one in order to protect their hope for European competition.

Last matchup: Hamburger SV win 1-0

My tip: Hamburger SV win 2-0

Energie Cottbus (17th) vs Bayer Leverkusen (9th): Cottbus had lost the Stuttgart and led them to the must-win match this week. So they will give everything they can in order to win the match. Dimitar Rangelov and Stanislav Angelov are the most important duo in the attacking line, as well as the supply from Ervin Skela, they are the only weapon in this match. Even Bayer Leverkusen is the strong opponent, it is lucky for Cottbus that Leverkusen does not anything to fight for in the league. They need to prepare the DFB Pokal so I do not believe they will pay too much attention on this match. Even Patrick Helmes may start the match, I believe he will not give his all and he will just maintain his form as his first priority. So I believe Cottbus will win this one and they at least can participate in the promotion / relegation playoff.

Last matchup: Match draw 1-1

My tip: Energie Cottbus win 2-1

Arminia Bielefeld (16th) vs Hannover 96 (11th): Bielefeld had been humiliated by Borussia Dortmund 6-0 last week and it did hurt the team so much. Even worse, they had sacked the head coach Michael Frontzeck 2 days after the humiliation and the interim coach Jörg Berger took over. I believe the new interim coach will not change anything special at all so I believe the players such as Vlad Munteanu will be still important. However, their morale is in the lowest of the low and it is very meesy within the team. So I believe they are hard to win the match. Speaking to humiliation, Hannover is also been humiliated by Wolfsburg by losing 5-0 at home. Even though they are humiliated, I believe Hannover can stand up and win the match at away. This is because they do not have any pressure and they are sticking together well internally, so I believe Hannover can win this match and lead them to have 3 away wins in a row.

Last matchup: Match draw 1-1

My tip: Hannover 96 win 2-0

Borussia Mönchengladbach (15th) vs Borussia Dortmund (5th): Gladbach even lost the game last week, they still have a very good position on avoiding relegation as they only need 1 point to confirm their survival. Also, they have 4 goals advantage against Armina Bielefeld, so Gladbach still have chance to avoid relegation directly if they do not lose the game in big margin. Alexander Baumjohann is in top form and he can create lots of through balls to his own teammates and threaten the opposition. Also, the team is in the great morale so I believe they can fight hard and bring a hard time to Dortmund. On the other hand, Dortmund is in red hot form as they won 6-0 last week. Nelson Valdez is very important to the team and I believe he will bring threats to Gladbach. Even it is so, I believe Gladbach can snatch a draw as they have target to achieve.

Last matchup: Borussia Dortmund win 2-1

My tip: Match draw 1-1

Schalke 04 (8th) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (7th): Both teams failed to qualify for Europe as they failed to win the match last week. Schalke was basically looking forward the arrival of Felix Magath next season so fans do not care about how bad they play now. Kevin Kuranyi and Jefferson Farfan have the one last chance to prove themselves they are worth to stay in the team so they will play extra hard. Jermaine Jones is the most important midfielder in the team as he can stop Carlos Eduardo. On the other hand, since the return of Carlos Eduardo, Hoffenheim had gained back their best attacking form. His through balls and position are very good that bring a lot of threats to the opposition. I believe there is a high score draw as both teams do not have any pressure.

Last matchup: Mach draw 1-1

My tip: Match draw 2-2

1. FC Köln (12th) vs VfL Bochum (14th): Both teams are the same, they only hope for playing the best football this week as both of them do not have anything to fight for. Köln even though in the cold streak, I believe they do not care about it as they are foreseeing the next season and they are dared to test. On the other hand, Bochum finally can relieve a bit as they won last week to ensure their survival in the Bundesliga. They will enjoy the match and the result is finally not important for them. So I believe this is a draw as they both lose the target to fight for.

Last matchup: 1. FC Köln win 2-1

My tip: Match draw 1-1

So that's all my tipping this Bundesliga season. Next I will review the performance team by team. Before that, I will also tip the DFB Pokal and the promotion / relegation playoff.

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