Wednesday, August 5, 2009

German Bundesliga Season 2009-2010 Preview - relegation trouble

Last two parts I have previewed the hot favorites and the dark horses respectively. Now I will preview teams who have relegation trouble this season:

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Huge change again: Compare with last season, there were lots of changes in the summer. They seemed they did not have any clues to stick firm in Bundesliga so they kept changing the players. A very good news for them that they had signed Juan Arango from Mallorca. It did help the team in the midfield creation and being the first line defense as well. Michael Bardley is keeping the great form so he is a very important player if they want a quick start of the season. The key is the strikers, they have to convert the play into goals better than last season. I believe avoiding relegation will be their first priority and seek for better performance afterwards.
What's helping them to fight back: Consistent defence. Even the attack has the problem, the most important factor is the defence improvement. Goalkeeper Logan Bailly is leading the defence well since the arrival of last winter and his performance is very important.
What's making them to fall: Attacking. Poor finishing is the key reason why they fight for survive. Rob Friend was very poor performance last season and failed to convert plays into goals effectively. Karim Matmour will be very important to do this job now, especially the departure of Alexander Baumjohann and Marko Marin will degrade the creativity in the midfield.

VfL Bochum - do it again: Bochum had an average season last season. As predicted they were around the relegation zone but luckily they were not in serious deep trouble. They kept the squad generally compare with last season so I believe they will not have any breakthrough. The attack will be the key as this was the reason why they could stay firm in the league. Diego Klimowicz and Stanislav Sestak are the important attacking duo to lead the team to get away from the trouble so I believe the team's fate is all counted on him.
What's helping them to fight back: Midfield creativity. As mentioned, the strikers are the most important players to help them to fight back, but the creation from the midfield will be the important factor as well. Shinji Ono and Christoph Dabrowski need to control the midfield well im order to provide more chances to attack.
What's making them fall: Goalkeepers. The defence is not solid enough, but the goalkeeper does have trouble to perform well. Daniel Fernandez was the worst goalkeeper in Bundesliga last season as he kept making the cheap mistakes and led the team down a lot. So if he cannot perform well, there will be more trouble for Bochum this season.

1. FSV Mainz 05 - can they stick firm: It is not unfamiliar to hear Mainz as they had gone up to Bundesliga for a couple of times last few seasons. However, they failed to stick firm and fell down again and again. So I believe they will aim for avoiding the relegation as their first priority. They have strengthened the squad in order to keep their place in Bundesliga. So the new players need to perform well in order to help the team.
What's making them to fight back: More than 100% performance. Even there are new players to join the team, I believe they are still outclassed by the others. So they have to play extra well in order to win games, esepcially against teams in same class.
What's making them fall: Rough season start. Unlike VfL Wolfsburg, they have a players injury as well as changing coach right before the start of season. After the elimination of DFB Pokal 1st Round, the coach is sacked and replaced. Plus the injury of Eugen Polanski damages the team hard. So I believe they need to fight extra hard in the first two months.

SC Freiburg - welcome back: After the long period in the Second Division, they finally gained the promotion place as well as winning the championship last season. Even they are experienced in the first class league, I believe the players themselves need to adept the league as they generally do not have much experience. Du-Ri Cha is the only important signing this summer but it is unknown if he really improves or he actually degrades. They kept most of the squad members so it is quite hard for them to fight for a place in Bundesliga.
What's making them to fight back: Pressure free. General prediction mentioned that they are the hot favorite to get back to Second Division again so fans do not have any expectation. This factor does release a lot of pressure for them and they can play freely. It can bring a lot of surprises to the opposition as they throw all the cautions away. Moreover, they can bring a early surprise if they play well.
What's making them fall: Class different. As mentioned they kept most of the squad members of last season. The only worry is the class. As we all know Bundesliga is totally different from the Second Division so it is nothing even they won the title. I believe they will be confirmed to fall back to Second Division about a month away from the season end.

So that's my general preview. As usual, I will predict the match week by week.

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